According to Deutsche Welle, Trump has repeatedly warned during the first seven months of his second term of additional punitive measures against any nation aligning with what he calls "anti-American policies"—a pointed reference to the BRICS growing challenge to US global dominance. While Trump has declared "BRICS is dead," one critic has accused the US president of "strategic malpractice," arguing that the Republican has turned a loose coalition of countries with vastly different objectives into a more unified bloc.
In a recent op-ed for The Washington Post, Max Boot, a foreign policy analyst at the Council on Foreign Relations, said Trump was "diminishing US power by perversely uniting America's friends with our enemies"—a reference to how Brazil, South Africa, and India are aligning more closely with China and Russia. The Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit in Tianjin wrapped earlier this week with a notable thaw in relations among BRICS heavyweights. Chinese President Xi Jinping, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, and Russian President Vladimir Putin held their first trilateral talks in six years, marking a diplomatic breakthrough after years of tensions between India and China.
Modi's visit—his first to China in seven years—was seen as a gesture of pragmatism, with all three leaders emphasizing the need for multipolar cooperation. The SCO platform allowed them to align on trade, energy, and regional security, laying the groundwork for deeper BRICS coordination. That momentum now shifts to Monday’s BRICS virtual summit, where Brazil’s President Lula will host leaders from the Global South to discuss joint retaliation against US tariffs and expanding trade in local currencies.
Trump’s huge tariffs have already pushed New Delhi to strengthen economic ties with China, resuming direct flights, easing visa restrictions, and increasing trade discussions even before the SCO. The two countries have also held talks to resolve long-standing disputes along their almost 3,500-kilometer (2,175-mile) de facto border. During a recent visit to India by Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi, Beijing agreed to boost supplies of rare earth minerals to the South Asian country. China controls over 85% of global rare earth processing, while India urgently needs these minerals for clean energy, electric vehicles, and defense technologies.
Despite backing each other to host the 2026 and 2027 BRICS summits, several reasons cast doubt on a significant improvement in Sino-Indian ties in the longer term, given New Delhi’s suspicions over China’s ambitions in Asia. Shilan Shah, deputy chief emerging markets economist at the London-based Capital Economics, cited China’s close relations with India’s main foe Pakistan and the construction of a Chinese hydropower dam on the Tibetan Plateau, which has caused unease in New Delhi.
India’s mistrust of China and its longstanding ties with Washington could still hurt ambitions to move the BRICS project forward. India still relies heavily on the US market and technology, with exports to the US totaling $77.5 billion in 2024, versus much lower exports to Russia and China. Other BRICS nations are also boosting ties with China. Brazil sought to enhance bilateral trade with China, its largest trading partner, during a phone call earlier this month between Xi and Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva. China accounts for 26% of Brazil’s exports—double that of the US.
A highly symbolic appearance by Putin and Xi during Russia’s Victory Day parade in May underscored the deepening strategic alignment between Moscow and Beijing. More than 90% of bilateral trade between Russia and China is now conducted in yuan and rubles, according to the Kremlin. South Africa, meanwhile, remains steadfast in its BRICS commitments, signaling its intent to chart its own course despite pressure from Trump.
Having grown from the original four to ten members—with Saudi Arabia still undecided about joining—BRICS is, however, becoming increasingly fragmented due to diverging national interests, which could further limit its ambitions. It is also becoming more authoritarian. Former Indian trade official Srivastava, who went on to establish the New Delhi-based Global Trade Research Initiative, said BRICS is "less about perfect unity and more about pragmatic cooperation in trade, finance, and supply chains."
While trade among BRICS nations has been increasing faster than trade between BRICS and G7 countries, much of it is in hydrocarbons. The intra-BRICS trade is, interestingly, subject to more barriers than those that exist between countries in the Global North, according to research by the Boston Consulting Group. The consulting firm identified future signs that BRICS trade cooperation was increasing, including a rollback of anti-dumping and other trade restrictions, moves toward a BRICS-wide free trade agreement, unanimous support for reforms to the World Trade Organization, and more foreign investment among BRICS nations.
While those ambitions may not materialize immediately, Mihaela Papa, director of research and principal research scientist at the Center for International Studies, expects intra-BRICS trade to take on more urgency. "We can expect greater political support for new trade initiatives, Buy BRICS campaigns, and projects like the BRICS grain exchange and the expansion of local currency settlement mechanisms," Papa told DW. Srivastava predicted that the dollar would stay "dominant for years, but parallel settlement systems in yuan, rupee, and ruble will grow. This won’t dethrone the dollar," he said, "but will steadily chip away at its monopoly."