Islamabad: Pakistan’s ties with the United States are deepening following the announcement by former President Trump to develop Islamabad’s oil reserves and increase the US presence near the border with Iran. This development raises questions about the impact on Tehran’s relations with its neighbor Pakistan.
According to Deutsche Welle, Muhammad Shoaib, an international affairs expert and Assistant Professor at Quaid-i-Azam University Islamabad, highlighted that the US-Pakistani relationship has been characterized by alliances during the Cold War and the War on Terror, alongside tensions over Pakistan’s counterterrorism efforts and its relationship with militant groups. Shoaib noted that Iran, having witnessed previous phases of Pakistan’s relationship with the US, is not overly concerned about the latest developments.
Despite the apparent strengthening of US-Pakistan relations, complexities persist. Pakistan recently nominated Trump for the Nobel Peace Prize for his diplomatic intervention during the India-Pakistan crisis, only to condemn US airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities shortly afterward.
Aman from the Middle East Institute indicated that Iran is seeking to improve its ties with Pakistan due to the potential threat of military action from Israel or the US. Tehran anticipates continued support from Pakistan for its right to a peaceful civilian nuclear program. Pakistan finds itself in a delicate situation, aiming to enhance strategic ties with the US while maintaining support for its Muslim neighbor.
Shoaib remarked that Pakistan serves as a credible intermediary between Iran and the US, supporting Iran’s peaceful nuclear ambitions without endorsing nuclear weapon development. Following a meeting in Washington, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio commended Pakistan’s efforts to mediate between Washington and Tehran, as confirmed by Pakistan’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson, Shafqat Ali Khan.
Trade law expert Malik suggested that Iran hopes Pakistan will leverage its closer relationship with Trump to secure a civilian nuclear deal. However, US sanctions on Tehran’s nuclear program impede potential full-scale bilateral trade between Pakistan and Iran.
Shoaib emphasized that Islamabad has avoided formal trade with Iran, including the Iran-Pakistan gas pipeline project, due to these sanctions. He stated that Pakistan would seek some easing of US sanctions on Iran to pursue a more comprehensive trade relationship.
Malik noted that Pakistan conducts unofficial trade with Iran, with estimates indicating that 30% of Pakistan’s fuel consumption is covered by smuggled Iranian oil. Easing tensions between Tehran and Washington through Pakistan could potentially lead to sanctions relief. However, Aman pointed out that major projects like the gas pipeline remain stalled under current conditions, as Islamabad cannot risk secondary sanctions or further straining its relationship with Washington.